Monday, 11 January 2010

Anecdotes

Someone tells you they went to a holistic health practitioner and got better..that's an anecdote. Scientists don't like them because they are isolated instances that haven't been rigourously examined. This is a very good reason because other things might be happening like:
1) the person might have got better anyway- many people take things for minor ailments when they are at their worst and, generally, they will be getting better from then on in regardless.
2) the person is having a placebo effect- a wonderful thing but not what they think is happening!
3) people are very bad at judging things, being aware of multiple causes and hidden effects. If you feel good after a spiritual healing session where's the evidence that having someone pay you a lot of attention for an hour hasn't been the cause of your mood lift?
Where the experts can, and sometimes do, go too far is when everything that is an anecdote is automatically dismissed. Just because something hasn't been through a randomised blind trial doesn't mean it doesn't happen as per the anecdote. Both sides can be very bad thinkers!

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